India's economic outlook for November 2025

India's economic outlook for November 2025 is highly positive, with strong growth projections driven by robust domestic demand, government spending, and policy reforms. Key Economic Highlights Growth Projections: India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Various agencies have revised their GDP growth forecasts for the current fiscal year (FY26) upwards, with projections generally ranging from 6.5% to 7.0%. GDP Size: The Chief Economic Advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran, has stated that India is on track to surpass the $4 trillion GDP mark in the current fiscal year, solidifying its position as the world's fourth or fifth largest economy. Inflation: Inflation has been easing significantly, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate at a record low of 1.55% in July 2025. This has created potential space for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to consider further interest rate cuts to boost consumption and investment. Sector Performance: Growth is broad-based, with strong momentum in: Services: This sector remains the largest contributor to GDP and has shown robust growth, driven by software and business services exports. Manufacturing: The sector is also expanding, supported by government initiatives like the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and strong domestic demand. Infrastructure: Public investment in infrastructure continues to be a key driver of growth. Challenges and Risks Despite the strong performance, some global challenges persist: Global Trade Tensions: Tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods have led to a decline in exports to the US since August 2025, a situation that is being actively monitored. External Headwinds: Global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and volatile oil prices remain potential risks to India's stable outlook. Fiscal Concerns: Tax cuts and income tax relief measures may lead to a marginal shortfall in revenue collections, which could impact the government's fiscal targets. Overall, India's economy exhibits strong fundamentals and is well-positioned for sustained growth, aiming to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030.